Inflation then was higher

Inflation then was higher, 4.5 per cent also, and at that point the RBA was cutting aggressively. And so - but you are still saying that there's no case for them to cut aggressively this time?

No, I think we need to be careful about saying what would get them over - what we'd need to see in order to get them to cut rates. And I think a lot more would need to be seen in order to get to that conclusion.

In fact, we still think a rate hike will invariably occur, but in the early part of 2012. Now, I think you - as you rightly point out, what we've seen is a pretty marked deceleration, we think, in terms of both confidence indicators, tightening up of financial conditions more broadly - of course the currency's a large part of that; wealth indicators falling away as well. They're three very important dynamics that tend to drive economic cycles. And all those are flashing red.

Now, in terms of the deterioration in growth that we've seen - and of course we haven't got the June quarter data yet, but if it does come in something in the order of around about 0.8 per cent, because let's face it, the export re-acceleration due to the anticipated pick-up in coal exports out of Queensland just hasn't materialised.

We can see that very clearly in terms of the port data. You're looking at a number that may be in the order of about 0.8, 0.9, which would take the headline GDP number to a level that is very similar to where we got to in year-on-year run rate during the depth of 2009.
So, of course we can say there's distortions that are doing that, and there are, but the baseline is a little bit worse than trend.